세미나 연사 
Prof. Yuh-Lang Lin(North Carolina A&T State University)
 세미나 장소 
과학관 553
 연도 
2017
 월 / 일 
7/14
 시간 
14:30

Title : Orographic influenceson rainfall enhancement and track deflection associated with tropical cyclones passing over mesoscale mountain ranges


Abstract:

Using Historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) models and multiple observationally-based datasets, new skill metrics are employed to analyze the fidelity of the simulated Northern Annular Mode (NAM), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North America pattern (PNA), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The unified approach, named as common basis function (CBF), is presented to evaluate modes of variability, based on projecting model anomalies onto the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF-1) from observations. The CBF approach circumvents issues with conventional EOF analysis, including the need to correct for arbitrary signs of EOF’s/PC’s, and the need to test if higher-order model modes better compare with the observed modes.


In many cases, models are doing a credible job at capturing the observationally based estimates of patterns and variance; however, errors in simulated amplitudes can be large and more egregious than pattern errors. The skill metrics proposed in this study can provide a useful summary of model ability to reproduce the observed pattern and amplitude strength of the variability modes and a tool to objectively highlight where potential improvements might be made. I advocate more systematic and objective testing of simulated extra-tropical variability, especially outside the dominant season of each mode where many models are doing relatively poorly.




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