세미나
2023년 10월 17일(화) 세미나 안내 | ||
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제목: A Review of MJO predictability: Progress, Challenges, and Paths Forward
연사: 김혜미 교수 (이화여자대학교 과학교육과) 일시: 2023년 10월 17일 화요일 16:00 장소: 과학관 B102호 Abstract: There has been an accelerating interest in forecasting the weather and climate within the subseasonal
time range. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), an organized envelope of tropical convection, is
recognized as one of the leading sources of subseasonal predictability. In the past decade, the MJO
prediction skill in dynamical prediction systems has exceeded the skill of empirical predictions. This
presentation briefly summarizes the advances in understanding MJO predictability, prediction, and
simulation. Recent progress has been mainly attributed to advances in theoretical understanding and
improved numerical models aided by multinational efforts through field campaigns and multimodel
experiments. These efforts enable us to acquire detailed information on the systematic biases and
errors in simulating the key physical processes considered important for MJO. While the state-of-the-art
dynamical forecasts have shown MJO prediction skill up to 4-5 weeks, considerable challenges remain,
such as the MJO Maritime Continent prediction barrier issue. Challenges and recommendations on new
research avenues to fully realize the predictability of the MJO will be discussed. |
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이전글 | 2023년 10월 17일(화) 세미나 안내 | |
다음글 | 2023년 10월 20일(금) 세미나 안내 |