제목: Stratospheric forecasting and data assimilation at the NASA GMAO ​

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The realistic representation of stratospheric dynamics is now considered a crucial component of modern weather forecasting systems. Here we discuss some aspects of stratospheric analysis and forecasting, including forecasting of mid-winter polar sudden stratospheric warming events and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation. Some difficulties with higher altitude mesospheric analyses and forecasting are also described. While many of the effects of relatively small-scale gravity waves require parameterization, newer data assimilation systems with higher horizontal resolution can capture resolved gravity waves, their dissipation, and their subsequent effects on the winter stratospheric polar vortex.